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Burnley W vs Cardiff City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Burnley W
Burnley W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Cardiff City W
Cardiff City W
1/29/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundLancashire FA County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Burnley W67%
×Draw15%
Cardiff City W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley W
3.60
Cardiff City W
1.90

Burnley W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Burnley W
4.40
Cardiff City W
2.40

allows per match

Burnley W
1.40
Cardiff City W
2.80

finishing

Burnley W+0.00on par
Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley W ↓

Cardiff City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Burnley W or draw
82%
Burnley W or Cardiff City W
85%
Draw or Cardiff City W
33%

Winning margin

Burnley W wins by 2+
49%
Cardiff City W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Burnley W 1+ goals
97%
Burnley W 2+ goals
86%
Burnley W 3+ goals
67%
Cardiff City W 1+ goals
85%
Cardiff City W 2+ goals
56%
Cardiff City W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Burnley W (draw refunded)
79%
Cardiff City W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Cardiff City W away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley W attack 4.40 + Cardiff City W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.60

Cardiff City W attack 2.40 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Burnley W scores more
67%
level
15%
Cardiff City W scores more
18%

Burnley W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burnley W vs Cardiff City W

Cardiff City W beat Burnley W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Lancashire FA County Ground in Leyland, Lancashire.