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Burnley W vs Bradford City — FA Women's Cup 2019

Burnley W
Burnley W
FT
11 – 0
HT: 8 – 0
Bradford City
Bradford City
12/1/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundLancashire FA County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Burnley W81%
×Draw10%
Bradford City8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley W
3.95
Bradford City
1.28

Burnley W creates 209% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Burnley W
4.40
Bradford City
1.17

allows per match

Burnley W
1.40
Bradford City
3.50

finishing

Burnley W+0.00on par
Bradford City+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley W ↓

Bradford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Burnley W or draw
92%
Burnley W or Bradford City
90%
Draw or Bradford City
19%

Winning margin

Burnley W wins by 2+
65%
Bradford City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burnley W 1+ goals
98%
Burnley W 2+ goals
89%
Burnley W 3+ goals
73%
Bradford City 1+ goals
72%
Bradford City 2+ goals
37%
Bradford City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burnley W (draw refunded)
91%
Bradford City (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Bradford City away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley W attack 4.40 + Bradford City defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.95

Bradford City attack 1.17 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Burnley W scores more
81%
level
10%
Bradford City scores more
8%

Burnley W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burnley W vs Bradford City

Burnley W beat Bradford City 11-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Lancashire FA County Ground in Leyland, Lancashire.