Burnley W 1–1 Birmingham City W: Result & Stats

Burnley W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Birmingham City W

1/14/2024

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundLancashire FA County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Burnley W63%

×Draw17%

Birmingham City W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burnley WExpected goals in this matchBirmingham City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.65

Burnley W

2.92

Birmingham City W

1.65

Burnley W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

4.40

creates per match

1.89

1.40

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Burnley W

4.40

Birmingham City W

1.89

allows per match

Burnley W

1.40

Birmingham City W

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley W+0.00on par

Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley W ↓

Birmingham City W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Burnley W or draw

80%

Burnley W or Birmingham City W

83%

Draw or Birmingham City W

37%

Winning margin

Burnley W wins by 2+

43%

Birmingham City W wins by 2+

Team goals

Burnley W 1+ goals

94%

Burnley W 2+ goals

78%

Burnley W 3+ goals

55%

Birmingham City W 1+ goals

81%

Birmingham City W 2+ goals

49%

Birmingham City W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Burnley W (draw refunded)

76%

Birmingham City W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burnley W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Birmingham City W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burnley W attack 4.40 + Birmingham City W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.92

Birmingham City W attack 1.89 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Burnley W scores more

63%

level

17%

Birmingham City W scores more

20%

Burnley W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff