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Burnley vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
19:45
West Brom
West Brom
3/2/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Turf Moor
Big match
61%
Burnley
model favours
61%24%15%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burnley61%
×Draw24%
West Brom15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.67
West Brom
0.68

Burnley creates 146% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.94
West Brom
0.89

allows per match

Burnley
0.47
West Brom
1.39

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
85%
Burnley or West Brom
76%
Draw or West Brom
39%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
34%
West Brom wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
81%
Burnley 2+ goals
50%
Burnley 3+ goals
23%
West Brom 1+ goals
49%
West Brom 2+ goals
15%
West Brom 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
80%
West Brom (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.94 + West Brom defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

West Brom attack 0.89 + Burnley defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Burnley scores more
61%
level
24%
West Brom scores more
15%

Burnley at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host West Brom

March 2, 2027: Burnley take on West Brom in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host West Brom at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.