Burnley 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

C. Roberts 54'

H. Clarke 87'

10/5/2022

Championship · Round 13Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Burnley52%

×Draw26%

Stoke City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.86

Burnley

1.49

Stoke City

0.86

Burnley creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

1.35

creates per match

1.05

0.68

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Burnley

1.35

Stoke City

1.05

allows per match

Burnley

0.68

Stoke City

1.62

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.23scores more

Stoke City-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

78%

Burnley or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

48%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

26%

Stoke City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

77%

Burnley 2+ goals

44%

Burnley 3+ goals

19%

Stoke City 1+ goals

58%

Stoke City 2+ goals

21%

Stoke City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

71%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.35 + Stoke City defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Burnley scores more

52%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

22%

Burnley at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Brownhill

Burnley · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

26'

Vitinho

54'

C. Roberts↳ J. Brownhill

64'

Ben Wilmot

72'

J. Guðmundsson← B. Manuel

72'

80'

87'

89'

90+5'

D. Wright-Phillips← T. Campbell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyStoke

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots6

14Corners2

5Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target4

3Off Target0

4Blocked2

5Inside Box5

8Outside Box1

Passing

69%Possession31%

645Total Passes288

561Accurate Passes198

87%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1