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Burnley vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
15:00
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
1/1/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Turf Moor
Big match
56%
Burnley
model favours
56%24%19%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burnley56%
×Draw24%
Sheffield Utd19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.67
Sheffield Utd
0.86

Burnley creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.94
Sheffield Utd
1.26

allows per match

Burnley
0.47
Sheffield Utd
1.41

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
81%
Burnley or Sheffield Utd
76%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
44%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
31%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
81%
Burnley 2+ goals
50%
Burnley 3+ goals
23%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
58%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
21%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
75%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.94 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sheffield Utd attack 1.26 + Burnley defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Burnley scores more
56%
level
24%
Sheffield Utd scores more
19%

Burnley at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Utd
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host Sheffield Utd

January 1, 2027: Burnley take on Sheffield Utd in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host Sheffield Utd at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.