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Burnley vs Reading — Championship 2018

Burnley
Burnley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reading
Reading
A. Zaroury 90+4'
B. Manuel 66'
T. Ince 56'
10/29/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Burnley59%
×Draw24%
Reading17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.69
Reading
0.79

Burnley creates 114% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 112 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.88
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Burnley
0.59
Reading
1.49

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
83%
Burnley or Reading
76%
Draw or Reading
41%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
33%
Reading wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
82%
Burnley 2+ goals
50%
Burnley 3+ goals
24%
Reading 1+ goals
55%
Reading 2+ goals
19%
Reading 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
77%
Reading (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.59 · 58 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.88 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.69

Reading attack 0.99 + Burnley defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Burnley scores more
59%
level
24%
Reading scores more
17%

Burnley at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
B. ManuelBurnleyBurnley · F
8.3

Match Events

22'
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
34'
J. Hoilett← T. Mcintyre
35'
Abdul Baba Rahman
56'
T. Ince↳ Y. Meïté
59'
Thomas Holmes
61'
B. Manuel← J. Guðmunds­son
61'
Vitinho← C. Roberts
66'
B. Manuel
71'
T. Fornah← O. Ejaria
72'
Mamadou Loum
77'
C. Egan-Riley← S. Bastien
82'
S. Long← Y. Meïté
85'
H. Dervişoğlu← N. Tella
90+9'
Arijanet Murić
90+6'
Manuel Benson
90+8'
Thomas Ince
90+4'
A. Zaroury↳ B. Manuel

Possession

71%Burnley

Shots

14Burnley

Pass accuracy

57%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyReading
Overview
71%Possession29%
14Total Shots10
12Corners9
7Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target4
6Off Target2
5Blocked4
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
71%Possession29%
576Total Passes220
492Accurate Passes141
85%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls7
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

Championship: Burnley 2–1 Reading

Burnley beat Reading 2-1 in Championship on October 29, 2022.

Goals: T. Ince (56'), B. Manuel (66'), A. Zaroury (90+4').

Burnley controlled possession (71%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.