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Burnley vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Leicester
Leicester
D. McNeil 38'
W. Morgan 90'
J. Maddison 33'
3/16/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Burnley34%
×Draw22%
Leicester44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.65
Leicester
1.90

Leicester creates 15% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.00
Leicester
1.92

allows per match

Burnley
1.87
Leicester
2.30

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more
Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
56%
Burnley or Leicester
78%
Draw or Leicester
66%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
17%
Leicester wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
81%
Burnley 2+ goals
49%
Burnley 3+ goals
23%
Leicester 1+ goals
85%
Leicester 2+ goals
56%
Leicester 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
44%
Leicester (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Leicester attack 1.92 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burnley scores more
34%
level
22%
Leicester scores more
44%

Leicester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. MaddisonLeicesterLeicester · M
7.8

Match Events

4'
Harry Maguire
6'
W. Morgan← D. Gray
33'
J. Maddison
34'
James Maddison
36'
Phil Bardsley
38'
D. McNeil↳ C. Taylor
64'
C. Fuchs← J. Maddison
70'
P. Crouch← C. Wood
77'
N. Mendy← H. Barnes
79'
R. Brady← J. Guðmunds­son
90+1'
M. Vydra← D. McNeil
90'
W. Morgan

Possession

62%Burnley

Shots

13Burnley

Pass accuracy

55%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyLeicester
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots9
9Corners3
9Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots9
2On Target4
7Off Target0
4Blocked5
9Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
472Total Passes294
379Accurate Passes194
80%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Burnley vs Leicester

Leicester beat Burnley 2-1 in Premier League on March 16, 2019.

Goals: J. Maddison (33'), D. McNeil (38'), W. Morgan (90').

Burnley controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.