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Burnley vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
T. Werner 70'
K. Zouma 63'
H. Ziyech 26'
10/31/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley28%
×Draw24%
Chelsea48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.23
Chelsea
1.69

Chelsea creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.00
Chelsea
1.51

allows per match

Burnley
1.87
Chelsea
1.45

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more
Chelsea-0.12scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
52%
Burnley or Chelsea
76%
Draw or Chelsea
72%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
11%
Chelsea wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
71%
Burnley 2+ goals
35%
Burnley 3+ goals
13%
Chelsea 1+ goals
82%
Chelsea 2+ goals
50%
Chelsea 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
37%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Chelsea defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.51 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley scores more
28%
level
24%
Chelsea scores more
48%

Chelsea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. MountChelseaChelsea · M
8.3

Match Events

26'
H. Ziyech↳ T. Abraham
46'
J. Rodriguez← D. Stephens
49'
Kevin Long
63'
K. Zouma↳ M. Mount
70'
T. Werner↳ H. Ziyech
73'
R. Brady← A. Barnes
73'
C. Hudson-Odoi← H. Ziyech
77'
O. Giroud← T. Abraham
86'
Jorginho← K. Havertz

Possession

36%Burnley

Shots

5Burnley

Pass accuracy

46%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyChelsea
Overview
36%Possession64%
5Total Shots14
3Corners4
10Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots14
0On Target9
4Off Target1
1Blocked4
1Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
392Total Passes693
294Accurate Passes608
75%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides4

Premier League: Burnley 0–3 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Burnley 3-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2020.

Goals: H. Ziyech (26'), K. Zouma (63'), T. Werner (70').

Chelsea controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.