Burnley 2–4 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Chelsea

D. McNeil 89'

J. Rodriguez 86'

Willian 58'

C. Pulisic 56', 45', 21'

10/26/2019

Premier League · Round 10Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley28%

×Draw24%

Chelsea48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.69

Burnley

1.23

Chelsea

1.69

Chelsea creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

1.51

1.87

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Chelsea

1.51

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Chelsea

1.45

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Chelsea-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

52%

Burnley or Chelsea

76%

Draw or Chelsea

72%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

11%

Chelsea wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

71%

Burnley 2+ goals

35%

Burnley 3+ goals

13%

Chelsea 1+ goals

82%

Chelsea 2+ goals

50%

Chelsea 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

37%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Chelsea defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.51 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley scores more

28%

level

24%

Chelsea scores more

48%

Chelsea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Pulisic

Chelsea · M

9.3

Match Events

21'

45'

53'

56'

58'

63'

63'

R. James← Marcos Alonso

65'

Jeff Hendrick

67'

Erik Pieters

70'

O. Giroud← T. Abraham

72'

C. Hudson-Odoi← Willian

77'

Callum Hudson-Odoi

84'

R. Brady← J. Hendrick

86'

J. Rodriguez↳ R. Brady

89'

D. McNeil↳ R. Brady

90'

Robbie Brady

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyChelsea

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots16

5Corners6

7Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots16

5On Target7

5Off Target2

3Blocked7

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

390Total Passes691

286Accurate Passes589

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0