Burnley 1–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

A. Barnes 64'

V. Moses 69'

K. Long 20' (OG)

4/19/2018

Premier League · Round 31Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley29%

×Draw24%

Chelsea47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.68

Burnley

1.25

Chelsea

1.68

Chelsea creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 35 away

1.00

creates per match

1.49

1.87

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Chelsea

1.49

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

53%

Burnley or Chelsea

76%

Draw or Chelsea

71%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

71%

Burnley 2+ goals

36%

Burnley 3+ goals

13%

Chelsea 1+ goals

81%

Chelsea 2+ goals

50%

Chelsea 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

38%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Burnley scores more

29%

level

24%

Chelsea scores more

47%

Chelsea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

V. Moses

Chelsea · M

8.1

Match Events

20'

K. LongOwn goal

28'

James Tarkowski

64'

A. Barnes↳ J. Guðmundsson

69'

V. Moses↳ Emerson

71'

E. Hazard← Álvaro Morata

72'

S. Vokes← C. Wood

84'

D. Zappacosta← Emerson

87'

N. Wells← A. Lennon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyChelsea

Overview

39%Possession61%

5Total Shots16

3Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots16

2On Target5

2Off Target5

1Blocked6

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

389Total Passes609

288Accurate Passes514

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1