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Burnley vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
14:00
Bristol City
Bristol City
9/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Turf Moor
Big match
61%
Burnley
model favours
61%24%15%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Burnley61%
×Draw24%
Bristol City15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.67
Bristol City
0.69

Burnley creates 142% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

Burnley
2.00
Bristol City
0.95

allows per match

Burnley
0.43
Bristol City
1.33

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
85%
Burnley or Bristol City
76%
Draw or Bristol City
39%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
34%
Bristol City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
81%
Burnley 2+ goals
50%
Burnley 3+ goals
23%
Bristol City 1+ goals
50%
Bristol City 2+ goals
15%
Bristol City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
80%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Bristol City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 2.00 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bristol City attack 0.95 + Burnley defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Burnley scores more
61%
level
24%
Bristol City scores more
15%

Burnley at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches
  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley have won 5 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
City
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burnley vs Bristol City — Match Preview

Burnley face Bristol City on September 5, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burnley host Bristol City at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.