Burnley 1–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

Z. Flemming 16'

3/29/2025

Championship · Round 39Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Burnley48%

×Draw29%

Bristol City24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.82

Burnley

1.29

Bristol City

0.82

Burnley creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

1.04

0.61

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Burnley

1.15

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Burnley

0.61

Bristol City

1.43

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Burnley+0.23scores more

Bristol City+0.02on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

76%

Burnley or Bristol City

71%

Draw or Bristol City

52%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

22%

Bristol City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

56%

Bristol City 2+ goals

20%

Bristol City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

67%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.43 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.15 + Bristol City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Burnley defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley scores more

48%

level

29%

Bristol City scores more

24%

Burnley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Z. Flemming

Burnley · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

Z. Flemming

60'

N. Wells← S. Armstrong

60'

R. McCrorie← H. Roberts

60'

G. Earthy← A. Mehmeti

64'

L. Foster← Z. Flemming

72'

Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes

81'

S. Bell← S. Twine

82'

H. Mejbri← J. Brownhill

90+1'

L. Koleosho← M. Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyBristol

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots4

1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.29

7Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots4

3On Target1

5Off Target1

6Blocked2

11Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

482Total Passes415

402Accurate Passes330

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.55Goals Prevented-0.55

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Offsides2