Burnley 1–2 Brighton: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Brighton

C. Wood 44'

A. Connolly 50'

Y. Bissouma 20'

7/26/2020

Premier League · Round 38Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley30%

×Draw24%

Brighton46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.69

Burnley

1.33

Brighton

1.69

Brighton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.87

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Brighton

1.50

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Brighton

1.67

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Brighton-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

54%

Burnley or Brighton

76%

Draw or Brighton

70%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

13%

Brighton wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

15%

Brighton 1+ goals

82%

Brighton 2+ goals

50%

Brighton 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

40%

Brighton (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Brighton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brighton attack 1.50 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Burnley scores more

30%

level

24%

Brighton scores more

46%

Brighton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Wood

Burnley · F

7.7

Match Events

5'

Josh Brownhill

20'

Y. Bissouma

44'

C. Wood↳ E. Pieters

50'

A. Connolly↳ N. Maupay

73'

Bernardo← S. March

73'

D. Pröpper← Y. Bissouma

74'

A. Mooy← A. Mac Allister

75'

R. Brady← J. Guðmundsson

78'

M. Vydra← J. Rodriguez

85'

Phil Bardsley

90'

Erik Pieters

90+3'

A. Jahanbakhsh← N. Maupay

90'

G. Murray← A. Connolly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyBrighton

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots15

6Corners7

11Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots15

2On Target4

8Off Target6

3Blocked5

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

378Total Passes334

283Accurate Passes259

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2