Burnley 3–2 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Bournemouth

G. Boyd 75'

S. Ward 16'

J. Hendrick 13'

C. Daniels 90+1'

B. Afobe 45+2'

12/10/2016

Premier League · Round 15Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley33%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.70

Burnley

1.44

Bournemouth

1.70

Bournemouth creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.00

creates per match

1.53

1.87

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Bournemouth

1.88

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

56%

Burnley or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

76%

Burnley 2+ goals

42%

Burnley 3+ goals

18%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

82%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

51%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

43%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burnley scores more

33%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

44%

Bournemouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Ward

Burnley · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

J. Hendrick↳ M. Lowton

16'

34'

45+2'

54'

55'

A. Gray← S. Vokes

55'

A. Barnes← S. Defour

59'

J. Wilshere← C. Wilson

60'

Dan Gosling

68'

George Boyd

72'

J. King← D. Gosling

75'

G. Boyd↳ A. Gray

81'

M. Pugh← R. Fraser

90+2'

J. Tarkowski← G. Boyd

90+1'

C. Daniels↳ M. Pugh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyBournemouth

Overview

30%Possession70%

15Total Shots18

4Corners11

14Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots18

7On Target4

6Off Target8

2Blocked6

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box10

Passing

30%Possession70%

242Total Passes545

139Accurate Passes447

57%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0