Bournemouth 0–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

J. Rodriguez 89'

12/21/2019

Premier League · Round 18Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Bournemouth60%

×Draw22%

Burnley18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.93

Bournemouth

1.88

Burnley

0.93

Bournemouth creates 102% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.66

creates per match

0.79

1.07

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.66

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.07

Burnley

2.10

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.26scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

82%

Bournemouth or Burnley

78%

Draw or Burnley

40%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

35%

Burnley wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

85%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

56%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

29%

Burnley 1+ goals

61%

Burnley 2+ goals

24%

Burnley 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

77%

Burnley (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.66 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.88

Burnley attack 0.79 + Bournemouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bournemouth scores more

60%

level

22%

Burnley scores more

18%

Bournemouth at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Taylor

Burnley · D

7.4

Match Events

45'

46'

56'

56'

56'

61'

62'

65'

A. Lennon← J. Hendrick

75'

J. Rodriguez← A. Barnes

82'

R. Brady← D. McNeil

86'

D. Solanke← P. Billing

89'

J. Rodriguez↳ A. Westwood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthBurnley

Overview

64%Possession36%

3Total Shots2

4Corners5

13Fouls21

Shots

3Total Shots2

0On Target1

3Off Target0

0Blocked1

1Inside Box1

2Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

437Total Passes230

338Accurate Passes134

77%Pass Accuracy58%

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0