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Burnley vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Burnley
Burnley
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
N. Tella 33', 11'
J. Brownhill 3'
J. Yates 76'
S. Lavery 74'
T. Corbeanu 21'
8/20/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Burnley60%
×Draw24%
Blackpool16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.70
Blackpool
0.76

Burnley creates 124% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.88
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Burnley
0.59
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
84%
Burnley or Blackpool
76%
Draw or Blackpool
40%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
34%
Blackpool wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
82%
Burnley 2+ goals
51%
Burnley 3+ goals
24%
Blackpool 1+ goals
53%
Blackpool 2+ goals
18%
Blackpool 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
78%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.59 · 58 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.88 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Burnley defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Burnley scores more
60%
level
24%
Blackpool scores more
16%

Burnley at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
N. TellaBurnleyBurnley · F
8.3

Match Events

3'
J. Brownhill↳ J. Rodríguez
11'
N. Tella↳ T. Harwood-Bellis
21'
T. Corbeanu
33'
N. Tella
45+1'
Dominic Thompson
47'
Josh Cullen
61'
Callum Connolly
61'
A. Barnes← J. Rodríguez
64'
G. Madine← T. Corbeanu
71'
D. Churlinov← Vitinho
72'
S. Bastien← N. Tella
74'
S. Lavery↳ J. Lawrence-Gabriel
75'
C. Hamilton← S. Lavery
75'
S. Carey← J. Lawrence-Gabriel
75'
J. Husband← D. Thompson
76'
J. Yates↳ K. Dougall
83'
Sonny Carey
85'
Ian Maatsen
89'
M. Virtue-Thick← J. Yates
90+5'
Kenneth Dougall
90'
B. Manuel← J. Cullen

Possession

71%Burnley

Shots

13Burnley

Pass accuracy

57%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyBlackpool
Overview
71%Possession29%
13Total Shots13
4Corners6
10Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target8
6Off Target4
3Blocked1
9Inside Box11
4Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
623Total Passes239
553Accurate Passes163
89%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Championship: Burnley 3–3 Blackpool

Burnley and Blackpool drew 3-3 in Championship on August 20, 2022.

Goals: J. Brownhill (3'), N. Tella (11', 33'), T. Corbeanu (21'), S. Lavery (74'), J. Yates (76').

Burnley controlled possession (71%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.