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Burnley vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
N. Tella 90+3'
C. Roberts 44'
A. Zaroury 1'
12/27/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley63%
×Draw23%
Birmingham13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.72
Birmingham
0.64

Burnley creates 169% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.89
Birmingham
0.79

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
Birmingham
1.55

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
87%
Burnley or Birmingham
77%
Draw or Birmingham
37%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
36%
Birmingham wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
82%
Burnley 2+ goals
51%
Burnley 3+ goals
25%
Birmingham 1+ goals
47%
Birmingham 2+ goals
14%
Birmingham 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
83%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + Birmingham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.72

Birmingham attack 0.79 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Burnley scores more
63%
level
23%
Birmingham scores more
13%

Burnley at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
C. RobertsBurnleyBurnley · D
8.7

Match Events

1'
A. Zaroury↳ C. Roberts
35'
Josh Cullen
35'
Hannibal Mejbri
36'
Tahith Chong
44'
C. Roberts↳ J. Brownhill
54'
Troy Deeney
62'
N. Tella← B. Manuel
66'
L. Jutkiewicz← H. Mejbri
67'
J. James← T. Chong
72'
C. Taylor← I. Maatsen
79'
J. Bellingham← M. Roberts
82'
J. Guðmunds­son← A. Zaroury
82'
A. Barnes← J. Rodríguez
87'
J. Leko← M. Colin
90+3'
N. Tella↳ C. Taylor

Possession

68%Burnley

Shots

10Burnley

Pass accuracy

56%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyBirmingham
Overview
68%Possession32%
10Total Shots2
1Corners1
12Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots2
4On Target0
5Off Target1
1Blocked1
6Inside Box1
4Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
665Total Passes305
576Accurate Passes204
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Burnley vs Birmingham

Burnley beat Birmingham 3-0 in Championship on December 27, 2022.

Goals: A. Zaroury (1'), C. Roberts (44'), N. Tella (90+3').

Burnley controlled possession (68%) and registered 10 shots to 2.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.