Burnley 0–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Arsenal

D. Rice 35'

V. Gyokeres 14'

11/1/2025

Premier League · Round 10Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley21%

×Draw23%

Arsenal56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.80

Burnley

1.02

Arsenal

1.80

Arsenal creates 76% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

1.73

1.87

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Arsenal

1.73

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Arsenal

1.03

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Arsenal+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

44%

Burnley or Arsenal

77%

Draw or Arsenal

79%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Arsenal wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Arsenal 1+ goals

83%

Arsenal 2+ goals

54%

Arsenal 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

28%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Arsenal defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Arsenal attack 1.73 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Burnley scores more

21%

level

23%

Arsenal scores more

56%

Arsenal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

V. Gyokeres↳ Gabriel

27'

Josh Cullen

35'

D. Rice↳ L. Trossard

46'

M. Merino← V. Gyökeres

55'

Zian Flemming

62'

L. Tchaouna← J. Anthony

62'

J. Bruun Larsen← L. Ugochukwu

72'

P. Hincapie← R. Calafiori

72'

E. Nwaneri← E. Eze

76'

A. Broja← Z. Flemming

76'

H. Mejbri← J. Laurent

77'

C. Norgaard← M. Zubimendi

82'

M. Edwards← J. Cullen

90+5'

Gabriel Magalhães

90+1'

M. Lewis-Skelly← L. Trossard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyArsenal

Overview

46%Possession54%

3Total Shots12

0.42Expected Goals (xG)2.42

1Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots12

0On Target8

3Off Target3

0Blocked1

2Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

427Total Passes494

348Accurate Passes426

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Premier League: Burnley 0–2 Arsenal

Arsenal beat Burnley 2-0 in Premier League on November 1, 2025.

Goals: V. Gyokeres (14'), D. Rice (35').

Arsenal controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 3.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.

Burnley vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Burnley 0–2 Arsenal