Burnley 0–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal

M. Ødegaard 30'

9/18/2021

Premier League · Round 5Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley19%

×Draw23%

Arsenal57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.77

Burnley

0.92

Arsenal

1.77

Arsenal creates 92% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

0.96

creates per match

1.61

1.94

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Arsenal

1.61

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Arsenal

0.88

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Arsenal+0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

43%

Burnley or Arsenal

77%

Draw or Arsenal

81%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

6%

Arsenal wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

60%

Burnley 2+ goals

23%

Burnley 3+ goals

7%

Arsenal 1+ goals

83%

Arsenal 2+ goals

53%

Arsenal 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

25%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.88 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Arsenal defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Arsenal attack 1.61 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burnley scores more

19%

level

23%

Arsenal scores more

57%

Arsenal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Ødegaard

Arsenal · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

Ashley Barnes

29'

Ashley Westwood

30'

M. Ødegaard

57'

M. Cornet← J. Guðmundsson

57'

M. Vydra← A. Barnes

61'

A. Lokonga← E. Smith Rowe

69'

Matěj VydraPenalty cancelled

75'

A. Maitland-Niles← T. Partey

78'

Nuno Tavares← K. Tierney

82'

J. Rodriguez← C. Wood

90+2'

Nuno Tavares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyArsenal

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots13

8Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots13

3On Target3

10Off Target4

5Blocked6

13Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

392Total Passes523

291Accurate Passes420

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2