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Burnley U18 vs Middlesbrough U18 — League #695 2026

Burnley U18
Burnley U18
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Middlesbrough U18
Middlesbrough U18
L. Fong 90'
B. Pouani 10'
T. Smith 63'
C. Ibeh 54', 19' (pen)
10/25/2025League #695League #695 · North - 8Burnley FC Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Burnley U1831%
×Draw24%
Middlesbrough U1845%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley U18
1.36
Middlesbrough U18
1.69

Middlesbrough U18 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Burnley U18
1.40
Middlesbrough U18
1.17

allows per match

Burnley U18
2.20
Middlesbrough U18
1.33

finishing

Burnley U18+0.00on par
Middlesbrough U18+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley U18 ↓

Middlesbrough U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Burnley U18 or draw
55%
Burnley U18 or Middlesbrough U18
76%
Draw or Middlesbrough U18
69%

Winning margin

Burnley U18 wins by 2+
14%
Middlesbrough U18 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Burnley U18 1+ goals
74%
Burnley U18 2+ goals
39%
Burnley U18 3+ goals
16%
Middlesbrough U18 1+ goals
82%
Middlesbrough U18 2+ goals
50%
Middlesbrough U18 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Burnley U18 (draw refunded)
41%
Middlesbrough U18 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Middlesbrough U18 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley U18 attack 1.40 + Middlesbrough U18 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Middlesbrough U18 attack 1.17 + Burnley U18 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burnley U18 scores more
31%
level
24%
Middlesbrough U18 scores more
45%

Middlesbrough U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Middlesbrough U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
B. Pouani
19'
C. IbehPenalty
54'
C. Ibeh
63'
T. Smith↳ I. Greenup
90'
L. Fong
Burnley
Middlesbrough
Anthony Philliskirk
Manager: Anthony Philliskirk
Rob William Jones
Manager: Rob William Jones

Match Recap: Burnley U18 vs Middlesbrough U18

Middlesbrough U18 beat Burnley U18 3-2 in League #695 on October 25, 2025.

Goals: B. Pouani (10'), C. Ibeh (19' pen, 54'), T. Smith (63'), L. Fong (90').

The match was played at Burnley FC Training Centre in Burnley, Lancashire.