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Bürmoos vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bürmoos
Bürmoos
FT
3 – 0
Zell am See
Zell am See
9/21/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 8Kunstrasenplatz Bürmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bürmoos51%
×Draw23%
Zell am See26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bürmoos
1.80
Zell am See
1.23

Bürmoos creates 46% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bürmoos
2.22
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

Bürmoos
0.84
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

Bürmoos+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bürmoos ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bürmoos or draw
74%
Bürmoos or Zell am See
77%
Draw or Zell am See
49%

Winning margin

Bürmoos wins by 2+
28%
Zell am See wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bürmoos 1+ goals
83%
Bürmoos 2+ goals
54%
Bürmoos 3+ goals
27%
Zell am See 1+ goals
71%
Zell am See 2+ goals
35%
Zell am See 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bürmoos (draw refunded)
66%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bürmoos at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bürmoos attack 2.22 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Zell am See attack 1.63 + Bürmoos defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bürmoos scores more
51%
level
23%
Zell am See scores more
26%

Bürmoos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bürmoos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bürmoos vs Zell am See

Bürmoos beat Zell am See 3-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Bürmoos in Bürmoos.