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Bürmoos vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bürmoos
Bürmoos
CANC
16:00
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
5/21/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 23Kunstrasenplatz Bürmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bürmoos50%
×Draw23%
ÖTSU Hallein28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bürmoos
1.83
ÖTSU Hallein
1.31

Bürmoos creates 40% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bürmoos
2.22
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Bürmoos
0.84
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Bürmoos+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bürmoos ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bürmoos or draw
72%
Bürmoos or ÖTSU Hallein
77%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
50%

Winning margin

Bürmoos wins by 2+
27%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bürmoos 1+ goals
84%
Bürmoos 2+ goals
54%
Bürmoos 3+ goals
28%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
73%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
38%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bürmoos (draw refunded)
64%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bürmoos at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bürmoos attack 2.22 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.83

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Bürmoos defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bürmoos scores more
50%
level
23%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
28%

Bürmoos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bürmoos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bürmoos host ÖTSU Hallein

May 21, 2021: Bürmoos take on ÖTSU Hallein in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bürmoos host ÖTSU Hallein at Kunstrasenplatz Bürmoos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.