Burladés 1–2 Lagunak: Result & Stats

Burladés

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lagunak

10/29/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 8Estadio Ripagaina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Burladés44%

×Draw24%

Lagunak32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurladésExpected goals in this matchLagunak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.35

Burladés

1.64

Lagunak

1.35

Burladés creates 21% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 32 away

1.34

creates per match

1.16

1.54

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Burladés

1.34

Lagunak

1.16

allows per match

Burladés

1.54

Lagunak

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burladés+0.00on par

Lagunak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burladés ↓

Lagunak →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Burladés or draw

68%

Burladés or Lagunak

76%

Draw or Lagunak

56%

Winning margin

Burladés wins by 2+

23%

Lagunak wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Burladés 1+ goals

81%

Burladés 2+ goals

49%

Burladés 3+ goals

23%

Lagunak 1+ goals

74%

Lagunak 2+ goals

39%

Lagunak 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Burladés (draw refunded)

58%

Lagunak (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burladés at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 91 matches

Lagunak away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burladés attack 1.34 + Lagunak defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lagunak attack 1.16 + Burladés defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burladés scores more

44%

level

24%

Lagunak scores more

32%

Burladés at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burladés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff