Burkina Faso 1–0 Tunisia: Result & Stats

Burkina Faso

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tunisia

1/29/2022

Africa Cup of Nations · Quarter-finalsStade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Burkina Faso46%

×Draw28%

Tunisia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burkina FasoExpected goals in this matchTunisia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.92

Burkina Faso

1.31

Tunisia

0.92

Burkina Faso creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

1.09

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Burkina Faso

1.63

Tunisia

1.09

allows per match

Burkina Faso

0.75

Tunisia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burkina Faso ↓

Tunisia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burkina Faso or draw

74%

Burkina Faso or Tunisia

72%

Draw or Tunisia

54%

Winning margin

Burkina Faso wins by 2+

21%

Tunisia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burkina Faso 1+ goals

73%

Burkina Faso 2+ goals

38%

Burkina Faso 3+ goals

14%

Tunisia 1+ goals

60%

Tunisia 2+ goals

23%

Tunisia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)

63%

Tunisia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burkina Faso at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Tunisia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burkina Faso attack 1.63 + Tunisia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tunisia attack 1.09 + Burkina Faso defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Burkina Faso scores more

46%

level

28%

Tunisia scores more

26%

Burkina Faso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Burkina Faso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff