Burkina Faso U17 2–1 Cameroon U17: Result & Stats

Burkina Faso U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cameroon U17

A. Tapsoba 41', 19'

D. Nyangono 75'

3/31/2025

CAF Cup of Nations - U17 · Group Stage - 1Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Burkina Faso U1767%

×Draw20%

Cameroon U1713%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burkina Faso U17Expected goals in this matchCameroon U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.75

Burkina Faso U17

2.04

Cameroon U17

0.75

Burkina Faso U17 creates 172% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Burkina Faso U17

2.33

Cameroon U17

0.50

allows per match

Burkina Faso U17

1.00

Cameroon U17

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burkina Faso U17+0.00on par

Cameroon U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burkina Faso U17 ↓

Cameroon U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Burkina Faso U17 or draw

87%

Burkina Faso U17 or Cameroon U17

80%

Draw or Cameroon U17

33%

Winning margin

Burkina Faso U17 wins by 2+

42%

Cameroon U17 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Burkina Faso U17 1+ goals

87%

Burkina Faso U17 2+ goals

60%

Burkina Faso U17 3+ goals

33%

Cameroon U17 1+ goals

53%

Cameroon U17 2+ goals

17%

Cameroon U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Burkina Faso U17 (draw refunded)

84%

Cameroon U17 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burkina Faso U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Cameroon U17 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burkina Faso U17 attack 2.33 + Cameroon U17 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cameroon U17 attack 0.50 + Burkina Faso U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Burkina Faso U17 scores more

67%

level

20%

Cameroon U17 scores more

13%

Burkina Faso U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Burkina Faso U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

28'

37'

41'

48'

61'

62'

L. Bidichou← J. Amang

63'

C. Pondy

75'

D. Nyangono↳ D. Bondoma

78'

K. Nana← A. Diaby

90+3'

M. Sako

90+4'

H. Diakité← I. Bara

90+3'

A. Mbouombouo← F. Luma

Burkina

Cameroon

1

2

4

18

3

▼

Eyen

10

A

Bondoma

6

⚽

Nyangono

8

▼

Amang

12

Doumbogo

7

▼

9

16

4

5

3

22

6

8

A

Sako

10

Bagayogo

19

⚽2

Tapsoba

7

A

▼

Bara

11

▼

Diaby

Manager: O. Barro

78'▲K. Nana←▼A. Diaby

90+4'▲H. Diakité←▼I. Bara

Burkina Faso U17 substitutes

15Nana9Diakité18Koné23Traoré1Konaté21Dambre13Konaté20Koné14Ramanou2Sanogo

Manager: A. Saidou

61'▲A. Massokon←▼O. Eyen

62'▲L. Bidichou←▼J. Amang

90+3'▲A. Mbouombouo←▼F. Luma

Cameroon U17 substitutes

17Massokon14Bidichou21Mbouombouo5Avama13Edjoto15Fometesong23Moussongo19Tsombeng22Mefoe11Tsombeng