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Buriram United vs Warin Chamrap — FA Cup 2018

Buriram United
Buriram Unitedadvanced
FT
12 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Warin Chamrap
Warin Chamrap
T. Chotmuangpak 90', 81'
S. Lee-Oh 79'
N. Weerawatnodom 76'
R. Maikami 72'
A. Stephen Berg 67'
F. Mulic 49', 34', 21' (pen)
I. Fandi 45', 39'
T. Prompoon 26' (OG)
10/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buriram United96%
×Draw3%
Warin Chamrap1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buriram United
5.30
Warin Chamrap
0.54

Buriram United creates 881% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Buriram United
4.60
Warin Chamrap
0.67

allows per match

Buriram United
0.40
Warin Chamrap
6.00

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par
Warin Chamrap+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Warin Chamrap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw
99%
Buriram United or Warin Chamrap
97%
Draw or Warin Chamrap
4%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+
89%
Warin Chamrap wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals
99%
Buriram United 2+ goals
96%
Buriram United 3+ goals
86%
Warin Chamrap 1+ goals
42%
Warin Chamrap 2+ goals
10%
Warin Chamrap 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)
99%
Warin Chamrap (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 4.60, concedes 0.40 · 20 matches

Warin Chamrap away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 4.60 + Warin Chamrap defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.30

Warin Chamrap attack 0.67 + Buriram United defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Buriram United scores more
96%
level
3%
Warin Chamrap scores more
1%

Buriram United at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
F. MulicPenalty
26'
T. PrompoonOwn goal
34'
F. Mulic
39'
I. Fandi
45'
I. Fandi
49'
F. Mulic
67'
A. Stephen Berg
72'
R. Maikami
76'
N. Weerawatnodom
79'
S. Lee-Oh
81'
T. Chotmuangpak
90'
T. Chotmuangpak
Buriram
Warin
Mark Jackson
Manager: Mark Jackson
J. Suwandee
Manager: J. Suwandee

Match Recap: Buriram United vs Warin Chamrap

Buriram United beat Warin Chamrap 12-0 in FA Cup on October 29, 2025.

Goals: F. Mulic (21' pen, 34', 49'), T. Prompoon (26' o.g.), I. Fandi (39', 45'), A. Stephen Berg (67'), R. Maikami (72'), N. Weerawatnodom (76'), S. Lee-Oh (79'), T. Chotmuangpak (81', 90').

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.