Buriram United 3–1 PTT Rayong: Result & Stats

Buriram United

3 – 1

PTT Rayong

5/1/2019

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buriram United88%

×Draw8%

PTT Rayong4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchPTT Rayong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

0.70

Buriram United

3.63

PTT Rayong

0.70

Buriram United creates 419% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

4.60

creates per match

1.00

0.40

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Buriram United

4.60

PTT Rayong

1.00

allows per match

Buriram United

0.40

PTT Rayong

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

PTT Rayong →

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

96%

Buriram United or PTT Rayong

92%

Draw or PTT Rayong

12%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

73%

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

97%

Buriram United 2+ goals

87%

Buriram United 3+ goals

68%

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

50%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

16%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

96%

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 4.60, concedes 0.40 · 20 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 4.60 + PTT Rayong defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.63

PTT Rayong attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Buriram United scores more

88%

level

PTT Rayong scores more

Buriram United at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff