Buriram United 1–0 Pohang Steelers: Result & Stats

Buriram United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pohang Steelers

Bissoli 56'

10/22/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 3Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Buriram United47%

×Draw25%

Pohang Steelers27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.10

Buriram United

1.54

Pohang Steelers

1.10

Buriram United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Buriram United

1.40

Pohang Steelers

1.00

allows per match

Buriram United

1.20

Pohang Steelers

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

73%

Buriram United or Pohang Steelers

75%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

53%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

24%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

79%

Buriram United 2+ goals

45%

Buriram United 3+ goals

20%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

67%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

30%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

64%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 1.40 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pohang Steelers attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Buriram United scores more

47%

level

25%

Pohang Steelers scores more

27%

Buriram United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Bissoli

Buriram United · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Kenny Dougall

30'

Gyu-baeg Lee

46'

Jeon Min-Gwang← Lee Gyu-Baek

56'

Bissoli↳ S. Haiprakhon

57'

Yoon Min-Ho← Kim In-Sung

57'

Lee Tae-Seok← Baek Sung-Dong

59'

Curtis Good

65'

Marcelo Djaló← S. Haiprakhon

65'

J. Tabinas← C. Good

68'

Han Chan-Hee← Kim Jong-Woo

75'

Chrigor← S. Chaided

76'

Lee Kyu-Min← Hong Yun-Sang

86'

Matheus Vargas← T. Bunmathan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BuriramPohang

Overview

39%Possession61%

6Total Shots12

7Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots12

2On Target1

3Off Target9

1Blocked2

5Inside Box7

1Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

341Total Passes542

269Accurate Passes484

79%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1