Buriram United 2–1 Pattaya United: Result & Stats

Buriram United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pattaya United

S. Mueanta 79'

Samuel 34' (pen)

Eliandro 43'

10/6/2021

League #296 · Round 6Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Buriram United67%

×Draw18%

Pattaya United15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.01

Buriram United

2.35

Pattaya United

1.01

Buriram United creates 133% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

2.40

creates per match

1.42

0.60

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Buriram United

2.40

Pattaya United

1.42

allows per match

Buriram United

0.60

Pattaya United

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Pattaya United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

85%

Buriram United or Pattaya United

82%

Draw or Pattaya United

33%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

44%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

90%

Buriram United 2+ goals

68%

Buriram United 3+ goals

41%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

64%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

27%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

82%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 2.40 + Pattaya United defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.35

Pattaya United attack 1.42 + Buriram United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Buriram United scores more

67%

level

18%

Pattaya United scores more

15%

Buriram United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

S. Bureerat

33'

C. Srinawong

34'

J. Vongkorn

34'

SamuelPenalty

43'

Eliandro↳ S. Bureerat

46'

S. Jitwichan← C. Buran

68'

S. Mueanta← S. Chaided

68'

Y. Lertlam← P. Khochalern

79'

S. Mueanta↳ Samuel

81'

C. Thongtae← P. Chamratsamee

81'

Aung Thu← S. Sarachat

85'

N. Phonkam← S. Jitwichan

87'

C. Thongthae

90+1'

C. Laptrakul← Samuel

Buriram

Pattaya

1

Khammai

27

Zarifovič

4

A

5

23

14

28

▼

Khochaler

11

Wonggorn

10

⚽

Eliandro

9

Srinawong

26

▼

1

4

15

18

14

3

19

▼

Sarachat

5

▼

Chamratsa

8

Maikami

91

⚽A

▼

Samuel

9

▼

Chaided

Manager: Alexandre Gama

68'▲S. Mueanta←▼S. Chaided

81'▲C. Thongtae←▼P. Chamratsamee

81'▲Aung Thu←▼S. Sarachat

90+1'▲C. Laptrakul←▼Samuel

Buriram United substitutes

54Mueanta11Thongtae77Thu17Laptrakul7Maicon62Doloh59Lakhonphon10Kaewprom88Hansson

Manager: M. Ishii

46'▲S. Jitwichan←▼C. Buran

68'▲Y. Lertlam←▼P. Khochalern

85'▲N. Phonkam←▼S. Jitwichan

Pattaya United substitutes

32Jitwichan21Lertlam6Phonkam78Choedwichit36Termmee49Wingwon44Khanakai79Sriponwaree3Sansanit