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Buriram United vs Pattani — FA Cup 2018

Buriram United
Buriram Unitedadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pattani
Pattani
Bissoli 88', 64', 45'
R. Sanchez 73'
1/14/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buriram United93%
×Draw5%
Pattani2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buriram United
4.46
Pattani
0.70

Buriram United creates 537% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Buriram United
4.60
Pattani
1.00

allows per match

Buriram United
0.40
Pattani
4.33

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par
Pattani+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Pattani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw
98%
Buriram United or Pattani
95%
Draw or Pattani
7%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+
81%
Pattani wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals
99%
Buriram United 2+ goals
92%
Buriram United 3+ goals
79%
Pattani 1+ goals
50%
Pattani 2+ goals
16%
Pattani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)
98%
Pattani (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 4.60, concedes 0.40 · 20 matches

Pattani away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 4.60 + Pattani defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.46

Pattani attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Buriram United scores more
93%
level
5%
Pattani scores more
2%

Buriram United at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Bissoli
64'
Bissoli
73'
R. Sanchez
88'
Bissoli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buriram United vs Pattani

Buriram United beat Pattani 4-0 in FA Cup on January 14, 2026.

Goals: Bissoli (45', 64', 88'), R. Sanchez (73').

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.