Buriram United 2–0 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Buriram United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lampang FC

L. Doumbouya 19' (pen)

J. Bolingi 5'

4/9/2023

League #296 · Round 26Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buriram United69%

×Draw19%

Lampang FC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.83

Buriram United

2.22

Lampang FC

0.83

Buriram United creates 167% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

2.78

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Buriram United

2.78

Lampang FC

1.00

allows per match

Buriram United

0.67

Lampang FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

87%

Buriram United or Lampang FC

81%

Draw or Lampang FC

31%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

45%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

89%

Buriram United 2+ goals

65%

Buriram United 3+ goals

38%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

56%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

20%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

84%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 2.78 + Lampang FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.22

Lampang FC attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Buriram United scores more

69%

level

19%

Lampang FC scores more

13%

Buriram United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Bolingi↳ R. Maikami

18'

T. Palachom

19'

L. DoumbouyaPenalty

69'

Jakkrit Songma← M. Marhasaranukun

76'

K. Prissa

78'

W. Srivichai← Y. Bamba

78'

C. Thirawatsri← T. Palachom

84'

A. Doloh← S. Chaided

85'

Jakkrawut Songma← K. Kasemkulwilai

85'

W. Tanee← A. Jaroentham

90+2'

A. Boodjinda← S. Mueanta

Buriram

Lampang

29

Thammasih

2

▼

Marhasara

16

Waenlor

3

▼

Jaroentha

91

Prissa

22

▼

Palachom

32

▼

13

14

9

11

▼

1

22

11

20

2

6

8

A

Maikami

26

⚽

Doumbouya

99

⚽

Bolingi

9

▼

Chaided

21

▼

Mueanta

Manager: M. Ishii

84'▲A. Doloh←▼S. Chaided

90+2'▲A. Boodjinda←▼S. Mueanta

Buriram United substitutes

62Doloh29Boodjinda58Soimalai15Weerawatnodom14Thanklang95Ratree59Lakhonphon92Inprakhon3Hemviboon

Manager: S. Yothee

69'▲Jakkrit Songma←▼M. Marhasaranukun

78'▲W. Srivichai←▼Y. Bamba

78'▲C. Thirawatsri←▼T. Palachom

85'▲Jakkrawut Songma←▼K. Kasemkulwilai

85'▲W. Tanee←▼A. Jaroentham

Lampang FC substitutes

17Songma30Srivichai10Thirawatsri19Songma20Tanee4Phonyiam83Yen-Arrom47Montha69Seekaewnit

Match Recap: Buriram United vs Lampang FC

Buriram United beat Lampang FC 2-0 in League #296 on April 9, 2023.

Goals: J. Bolingi (5'), L. Doumbouya (19' pen).

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.

Buriram United vs Lampang FC — League #296 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Buriram United vs Lampang FC