Buriram United 4–1 Hangzhou Greentown

Buriram United

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Hangzhou Greentown

9/20/2023

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buriram United62%

×Draw20%

Hangzhou Greentown18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.10

Buriram United

2.20

Hangzhou Greentown

1.10

Buriram United creates 100% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Buriram United

1.40

Hangzhou Greentown

1.00

allows per match

Buriram United

1.20

Hangzhou Greentown

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

82%

Buriram United or Hangzhou Greentown

80%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

38%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

39%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

89%

Buriram United 2+ goals

64%

Buriram United 3+ goals

37%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

67%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

30%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

77%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 1.40 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Buriram United scores more

62%

level

20%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

18%

Buriram United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff