Buriram United 2–0 Chonburi FC: Result & Stats

Buriram United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chonburi FC

1/29/2023

League #296 · Round 17Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buriram United85%

×Draw10%

Chonburi FC4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchChonburi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.55

Buriram United

3.00

Chonburi FC

0.55

Buriram United creates 445% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

0.67

0.43

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Buriram United

3.00

Chonburi FC

0.67

allows per match

Buriram United

0.43

Chonburi FC

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Chonburi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

96%

Buriram United or Chonburi FC

90%

Draw or Chonburi FC

15%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

67%

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

95%

Buriram United 2+ goals

79%

Buriram United 3+ goals

56%

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

42%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

11%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

95%

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 3.00 + Chonburi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Chonburi FC attack 0.67 + Buriram United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Buriram United scores more

85%

level

10%

Chonburi FC scores more

4%

Buriram United at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff