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Alliance vs Biashara United — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Alliance
Alliance
FT
1 – 1
Biashara United
Biashara United
9/20/2019Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 2Nyamagana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alliance42%
×Draw29%
Biashara United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alliance
1.23
Biashara United
0.97

Alliance creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Alliance
1.26
Biashara United
0.57

allows per match

Alliance
1.37
Biashara United
1.20

finishing

Alliance+0.00on par
Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance ↓

Biashara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alliance or draw
71%
Alliance or Biashara United
71%
Draw or Biashara United
58%

Winning margin

Alliance wins by 2+
19%
Biashara United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alliance 1+ goals
71%
Alliance 2+ goals
35%
Alliance 3+ goals
13%
Biashara United 1+ goals
62%
Biashara United 2+ goals
25%
Biashara United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alliance (draw refunded)
59%
Biashara United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alliance at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alliance attack 1.26 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Alliance defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alliance scores more
42%
level
29%
Biashara United scores more
29%

Alliance at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ligi kuu Bara: Alliance 1–1 Biashara United

Alliance and Biashara United drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Nyamagana Stadium in Mwanza.