Burgos 1–0 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salamanca UDS

Marcelo Ribeiro 80'

9/29/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Burgos47%

×Draw26%

Salamanca UDS27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Burgos

1.46

Salamanca UDS

1.04

Burgos creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Burgos

1.20

Salamanca UDS

1.00

allows per match

Burgos

1.07

Salamanca UDS

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

73%

Burgos or Salamanca UDS

74%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

53%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

23%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

77%

Burgos 2+ goals

43%

Burgos 3+ goals

18%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

65%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

28%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

63%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.20 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Burgos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Burgos scores more

47%

level

26%

Salamanca UDS scores more

27%

Burgos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Toché← D. Wilson

58'

Á. Pizzorno← L. Pisculichi

60'

Giovanni← Rafa Mella

66'

Carlos Indiano← Álex Albístegui

80'

Marcelo Ribeiro

81'

Ángel Sánchez← J. Chiapas

Burgos

Salamanca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Fernando Estévez

52'▲Toché←▼D. Wilson

58'▲Á. Pizzorno←▼L. Pisculichi

66'▲Carlos Indiano←▼Álex Albístegui

Burgos substitutes

TochéPizzornoIndianoMartínezMachínLópezLeak

Manager: Pablo Cortés

60'▲Giovanni←▼Rafa Mella

81'▲Ángel Sánchez←▼J. Chiapas

Salamanca UDS substitutes

GiovanniSánchezSánchezÁlvarezGalvánCalderónTorres