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Burgos vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Burgos
Burgos
CANC
00:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Burgos39%
×Draw29%
Real Unión32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos
1.17
Real Unión
1.02

Burgos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Burgos
1.20
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Burgos
1.07
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Burgos or draw
68%
Burgos or Real Unión
71%
Draw or Real Unión
61%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+
17%
Real Unión wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals
69%
Burgos 2+ goals
33%
Burgos 3+ goals
11%
Real Unión 1+ goals
64%
Real Unión 2+ goals
27%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)
55%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.20 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Burgos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burgos scores more
39%
level
29%
Real Unión scores more
32%

Burgos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burgos face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Burgos hosting Real Unión. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burgos host Real Unión at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.