Burgos 0–0 Levante: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

9/25/2022

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Burgos40%

×Draw31%

Levante30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.90

Burgos

1.09

Levante

0.90

Burgos creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

1.03

0.76

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Burgos

1.26

Levante

1.03

allows per match

Burgos

0.76

Levante

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

70%

Burgos or Levante

69%

Draw or Levante

60%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

16%

Levante wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

66%

Burgos 2+ goals

30%

Burgos 3+ goals

10%

Levante 1+ goals

59%

Levante 2+ goals

23%

Levante 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

57%

Levante (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Levante away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Levante defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Levante attack 1.03 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burgos scores more

40%

level

31%

Levante scores more

30%

Burgos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Borja González

Burgos · D

8.0

Match Events

8'

Mohamed Bouldini

22'

Marcelo Saracchi

45+2'

Grego Sierra

46'

Miki Muñoz← Grego Sierra

46'

Wesley Moraes← M. Bouldini

56'

Pablo Valcarce← Juan Hernández

57'

Vicente Iborra

67'

Pepelu← Rober Ibáñez

67'

Álex Muñoz← M. Saracchi

76'

Juan Artola← Álex Bermejo

76'

Gaspar Campos← Mourad

76'

C. Musonda← Brugui

84'

Curro Sánchez← Raúl Navarro

86'

Pablo Martínez← Joni Montiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurgosLevante

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots17

3Corners9

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots17

2On Target4

8Off Target8

3Blocked5

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

362Total Passes331

285Accurate Passes260

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0