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Burgos vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Burgos
Burgos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
1/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Burgos43%
×Draw28%
Haro Deportivo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos
1.26
Haro Deportivo
0.98

Burgos creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Burgos
1.20
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Burgos
1.07
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burgos or draw
71%
Burgos or Haro Deportivo
72%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
57%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+
19%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals
72%
Burgos 2+ goals
36%
Burgos 3+ goals
13%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
62%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
26%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)
60%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.20 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Burgos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burgos scores more
43%
level
28%
Haro Deportivo scores more
29%

Burgos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos vs Haro Deportivo

Burgos and Haro Deportivo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.