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Burgos vs Eldense — Segunda División 2018

Burgos
Burgos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Eldense
Eldense
5/10/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 39Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Burgos49%
×Draw28%
Eldense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos
1.38
Eldense
0.85

Burgos creates 62% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

creates per match

Burgos
1.26
Eldense
0.95

allows per match

Burgos
0.76
Eldense
1.50

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burgos or draw
77%
Burgos or Eldense
72%
Draw or Eldense
51%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+
24%
Eldense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals
75%
Burgos 2+ goals
40%
Burgos 3+ goals
16%
Eldense 1+ goals
57%
Eldense 2+ goals
21%
Eldense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)
68%
Eldense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Eldense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Eldense attack 0.95 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Burgos scores more
49%
level
28%
Eldense scores more
23%

Burgos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Burgos 1–2 Eldense

Eldense beat Burgos 2-1 in Segunda División on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.