Burgos 1–0 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barakaldo

D. Rivero 88'

1/5/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Burgos51%

×Draw26%

Barakaldo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.95

Burgos

1.53

Barakaldo

0.95

Burgos creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

1.20

creates per match

0.82

1.07

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Burgos

1.20

Barakaldo

0.82

allows per match

Burgos

1.07

Barakaldo

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

77%

Burgos or Barakaldo

74%

Draw or Barakaldo

49%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

26%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

78%

Burgos 2+ goals

45%

Burgos 3+ goals

20%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

61%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

25%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

68%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.20 + Barakaldo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Barakaldo attack 0.82 + Burgos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Burgos scores more

51%

level

26%

Barakaldo scores more

23%

Burgos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

Sergio García← Iker Olaizola

69'

D. Rivero← D. Wilson

72'

Urtzi Iriondo← Óscar Fernández

80'

Carlos Algarra← Adrián Hernández

81'

Carlos Martínez← R. Leak

88'

D. Rivero

90'

Koke González← Juanma García

Burgos

Barakaldo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Salmerón

69'▲D. Rivero←▼D. Wilson

81'▲Carlos Martínez←▼R. Leak

90'▲Koke González←▼Juanma García

Burgos substitutes

RiveroMartínezGonzálezPalatsíKleberPalaciosLópez

Manager: Hernán Pérez

65'▲Sergio García←▼Iker Olaizola

72'▲Urtzi Iriondo←▼Óscar Fernández

80'▲Carlos Algarra←▼Adrián Hernández

Barakaldo substitutes

GarcíaIriondoAlgarraRabanilloArbeloMotaZorrilla