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Burgos vs Amorebieta — Segunda División 2018

Burgos
Burgos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
4/27/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 37Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Burgos55%
×Draw26%
Amorebieta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos
1.50
Amorebieta
0.75

Burgos creates 100% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

creates per match

Burgos
1.26
Amorebieta
0.74

allows per match

Burgos
0.76
Amorebieta
1.74

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burgos or draw
81%
Burgos or Amorebieta
74%
Draw or Amorebieta
45%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+
29%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals
78%
Burgos 2+ goals
44%
Burgos 3+ goals
19%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
53%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
17%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)
75%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Burgos scores more
55%
level
26%
Amorebieta scores more
19%

Burgos at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos vs Amorebieta

Burgos and Amorebieta drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.