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Burgos Promesas vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
2/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas48%
×Draw27%
Mirandés II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.40
Mirandés II
0.94

Burgos Promesas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 112 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
75%
Burgos Promesas or Mirandés II
73%
Draw or Mirandés II
52%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
23%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
75%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
41%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
17%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
61%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
24%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
65%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
48%
level
27%
Mirandés II scores more
25%

Burgos Promesas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Mirandés II

Burgos Promesas beat Mirandés II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.