Burgos Promesas 1–0 Laguna de Duero: Result & Stats

Burgos Promesas

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Laguna de Duero

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Burgos Promesas63%

×Draw21%

Laguna de Duero15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burgos PromesasExpected goals in this matchLaguna de Duero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.81

Burgos Promesas

1.92

Laguna de Duero

0.81

Burgos Promesas creates 137% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 35 away

1.45

creates per match

0.80

0.83

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Burgos Promesas

1.45

Laguna de Duero

0.80

allows per match

Burgos Promesas

0.83

Laguna de Duero

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Laguna de Duero →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw

85%

Burgos Promesas or Laguna de Duero

79%

Draw or Laguna de Duero

37%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

38%

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

85%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

57%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

30%

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

56%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

19%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

81%

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more

63%

level

21%

Laguna de Duero scores more

15%

Burgos Promesas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Burgos Promesas 1–0 Laguna de Duero

Burgos Promesas beat Laguna de Duero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.

Burgos Promesas vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Burgos Promesas 1–0 Laguna de Duero