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Burgos Promesas vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
4/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas43%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.27
Cultural Leonesa II
1.00

Burgos Promesas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 110 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
71%
Burgos Promesas or Cultural Leonesa II
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
57%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
19%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
72%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
36%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
14%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
63%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
26%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
59%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
43%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
29%

Burgos Promesas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burgos Promesas 0 – 2 Cultural Leonesa II

Cultural Leonesa II beat Burgos Promesas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.