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Burgos Promesas vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
2/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Burgos Promesas57%
×Draw24%
Cultural Cebrereña19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.67
Cultural Cebrereña
0.85

Burgos Promesas creates 96% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
81%
Burgos Promesas or Cultural Cebrereña
76%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
43%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
31%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
81%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
50%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
23%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
57%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
21%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
75%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
57%
level
24%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
19%

Burgos Promesas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Cultural Cebrereña

Burgos Promesas beat Cultural Cebrereña 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.