Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burgos Promesas vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
12/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas57%
×Draw26%
Colegios Diocesanos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.52
Colegios Diocesanos
0.70

Burgos Promesas creates 117% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
83%
Burgos Promesas or Colegios Diocesanos
74%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
43%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
30%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
78%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
45%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
20%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
50%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
16%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
77%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
57%
level
26%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
17%

Burgos Promesas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Burgos Promesas 0–0 Colegios Diocesanos

Burgos Promesas and Colegios Diocesanos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.