Burgos Promesas 3–0 Ciudad Rodrigo: Result & Stats

Burgos Promesas

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ciudad Rodrigo

5/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 36Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Burgos Promesas60%

×Draw23%

Ciudad Rodrigo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burgos PromesasExpected goals in this matchCiudad Rodrigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.78

Burgos Promesas

1.73

Ciudad Rodrigo

0.78

Burgos Promesas creates 122% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

1.45

creates per match

0.74

0.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Burgos Promesas

1.45

Ciudad Rodrigo

0.74

allows per match

Burgos Promesas

0.83

Ciudad Rodrigo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw

83%

Burgos Promesas or Ciudad Rodrigo

77%

Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo

40%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

34%

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

82%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

52%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

25%

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals

54%

Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals

18%

Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

78%

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more

60%

level

23%

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more

17%

Burgos Promesas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Burgos Promesas beat Ciudad Rodrigo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.

Burgos Promesas vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Ciudad Rodrigo