Burgos Promesas 2–0 Briviesca: Result & Stats

Burgos Promesas

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Briviesca

3/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Burgos Promesas63%

×Draw23%

Briviesca14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burgos PromesasExpected goals in this matchBriviesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.67

Burgos Promesas

1.75

Briviesca

0.67

Burgos Promesas creates 161% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 18 away

1.45

creates per match

0.50

0.83

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Burgos Promesas

1.45

Briviesca

0.50

allows per match

Burgos Promesas

0.83

Briviesca

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Briviesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Briviesca →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw

86%

Burgos Promesas or Briviesca

77%

Draw or Briviesca

37%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

37%

Briviesca wins by 2+

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

83%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

52%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

25%

Briviesca 1+ goals

49%

Briviesca 2+ goals

15%

Briviesca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

82%

Briviesca (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Briviesca away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Briviesca defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Briviesca attack 0.50 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more

63%

level

23%

Briviesca scores more

14%

Burgos Promesas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff