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Bupolsa vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bupolsa
Bupolsa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
6/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 11Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa40%
×Draw30%
UD Santa Marta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bupolsa
1.15
UD Santa Marta
0.98

Bupolsa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 115 away

creates per match

Bupolsa
0.80
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Bupolsa
1.00
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw
69%
Bupolsa or UD Santa Marta
70%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
60%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+
17%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals
68%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
32%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
11%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
62%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
26%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)
56%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bupolsa scores more
40%
level
30%
UD Santa Marta scores more
31%

Bupolsa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bupolsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bupolsa 0–1 UD Santa Marta

UD Santa Marta beat Bupolsa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Campo San Amaro in Burgos.